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  • sumagiri
    10-07 04:47 PM
    I have built a very simple EB2-I Visa predition model

    Making following assumption

    15000 new EB2 ROW I-485 applications
    12000 new EB1 I-485 applications
    EB4/EB5 use 70% of allocated visa (30% spillover)


    EB2 Visa Bulletin prediction for FY 2010
    Bulletin Quarterly-spillover Annual Spillover
    Oct-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
    Nov-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
    Dec-09 31-Mar-2005 1-Feb-2005
    Jan-10 31-Mar-2005 15-Feb-2005
    Feb-10 31-Mar-2005 31-Mar-2005
    Mar-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
    Apr-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
    May-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
    Jun-10 15-Oct-2006 31-Mar-2005
    Jul-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Sep-2005
    Aug-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Apr-2007
    Sep-10 31-Mar-2007 30-May-2007

    Sachug, it is a great attempt to compare the quarterly and annual spill overs. I made rough calculations couple of weeks ago with annual spill over. However, I assumed around 25K ROW visas(both pending and new) for EB2. And assumed only aroudn 125K for AOS keeping 15K for CP. I will compile all of my assumptions and post here. Overall, my calcs estimated EB2 move to Dec 2006. By the way, I hope you took China in to consideration for spill over.





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  • thomachan72
    01-14 09:14 AM
    I think the other intersting point is - Does the employer provide any benefits to the beneficiary/employee?

    Almost no desi dalla provides medical insurance to its employees...it will be interesting how USCIS handles this and whether they will make it a point or not?

    what the heck are you talking about. If there is any specific cases of abuse please contact the CIS and report those. Dont say "almost all" etc on this website. That might not be true and we dont want general statements like these to hurt the prospects of our members.





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  • amsgc
    07-26 04:48 PM
    From what I remember, Ron Hira had done the math and found that only 0.03% of those H-1B visa applicants get sponsored for the GC by the Indian Offshore companies.

    But, we still have a tremendous backlog in 2004, plus labor subs, plus EB3 moving over to EB2. According to , there are still hundreds of people waiting with PD before June 2004.

    Also out of the 65K H1 visas that were available since 2003, most of the Visas were consumed by the Big Indian companies.
    Remember when Congress sent letters to the Big Indian companies, there was data related to how many companies applied for how many Visas.

    AFAIK it was in the range of 25k-35k per year combined by all these companies that filed H1s .

    One thing to note is, they do not sponsor GCs for all the applicants.They do them very rarely for the people who are in their 5th to 6th year of H1.Could be in the range of Hundereds and not thousands comapred to the people count they have in US.





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  • glus
    02-13 07:19 AM
    Clear up your mind for a little while and consider this:

    The whole working world lives by on one simple rule ..... GETTING PEOPLE OFF YOUR BACK.
    The bigger PITA (pain-in-the-ass) you are... the higher is the priority you get.

    As a community we will need to become a PR nightmare for govt. officals... simply being an inconvenience is not going to cut it... we will have to become a "a cactus that is stuck in the colon".

    USCIS says EBs are retrogressed because there are XXXXX people in the queue. Why is the queue so long? Because they wasted numbers in the past and kept the queue long. This is pure operational inefficiency that is resulting in monetary, emotional and mental loss to about a million people.
    This is a valid ground for a class action lawsuit.

    By filing this suit, we will become the "cactii in the colon" that they will have to address. And you know what the easy out of court settlement will be..... RECAPTURE!

    We will keep lobbying and crying as we usually do.. But this thing has a far better shot than anything else.

    Class actions are not performed easily. First,one needs to show that an agency acted illegally and that action caused many people harm. The fact that USCIS did not use all the visa numbers is not automatically illegal. The law says that the MAXIMUM number of visas, for example, in the EB is 140,000 per fiscal year. It does not say what's the minimum. I am not an attorney, but if that were an easy case, many times would someone else have tried it. Good idea, but as far as I know, difficult to fight from a legal point of view. I'll ask my attorney about this and will keep you posted.



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  • ramus
    07-03 09:43 PM
    No problem.. Fund drive is important ...


    sorry :D

    this one time pls allow us to post contribution thread here..





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  • PlainSpeak
    01-14 09:50 AM
    PlainSpeak has a new sock puppet account called actaccord who has no choice but to support him/her. how many more accounts did gcperm create who don't donate ot participate?
    Guys lets not waste our time on manipulative salespeople.
    In cases like PlainSpeak we need a background check for free members posting more than 10 messages a day, not only charge them.
    I agree this member has been inciting people to start fighting with him/her and into arguments, and playing a emotional manipulative card by pretending to be a woman. did you take acting classes at a dollar store, its so fake and cheap?
    plainspeak is just trying to keep negative threads alive and incite more in-fighting.
    PlainSpeak has a new sock puppet account called actaccord who has no choice but to support him/her. how many more accounts did gcperm create who don't donate ot participate?
    Ok here is the fallacy in your argument. Why do i need mutiple accounts to get you guys to realize what u you are doing is wrong when this one account and this one post is all that takes to get everyone to see the real side of the so called senior members and donaters.
    Regarding GC PERM (Rolling my eyes NOT Again) see my previous post and please read it carefully and if you do not get it please read it a couple of time more. i am sure you will get it.

    And yes my friend TinyHK12 you might have just lost the support of the one guy on this forum who while not being abusive about my post also did NOT support me. He was rooting for AmitJoye a senior member here and some one with whose idea you agree 100%. Thats called as shooting yourselves in the foot

    In cases like PlainSpeak we need a background check for free members posting more than 10 messages a day, not only charge them.
    Sure that is a great idea. As i said before (I think i was responding to you post in another thread) a paid subscription for posting messages on this forum is agreat idea and background checks wow that is a new one. How about a criminal background check like they do for jobs in financial sectors. Great idea but please remeber this will have to be a requirement which wil have to be implemented for each and every member of this forum and yes that includes background check on you yourselves my friend TonyHK. And please dont even think about the privacy issues IV will face

    I agree this member has been inciting people to start fighting with him/her and into arguments, and playing a emotional manipulative card by pretending to be a woman.
    Ok first please get this one fact straight that i am a women but just so that all you abusive senior members and donors will breathe a little easy i will become a man for you. Then you guys will not have any constraints and will not hold back and will not feel bad about abusing a women becasue for your convieneice and so that you can abuse guilt free i hav ebecome a man. Now there is just one thing wrong with this logic

    ABUSING ON FORUM IS WRONG WHETHER IT IS AGAINST A MAN OR A WOMEN PERIOD
    Sheesh you guys are shooting yourselves in the foot every time you post on this forum

    plainspeak is just trying to keep negative threads alive and incite more in-fighting.
    If you senior members and donars will step back and think about this for a moment you will realize the truth and the truth is that you guys have accused me of mob mentality but the fact is it is you guys who have a mob mentality.

    How let me explain .........

    If you do no agree to a post all of you gang up and start abusing the posters and any unfortunate souls who agree with the posters. Normally that is enough to scare the poster away. He/she either decides that this is not worth it and takes an out or is coerced by you so called senior members in such a way that their will is broken and they are just plain scared (YES SCARED !!).

    Now coming to my post. There is nothing wrong in what i said. I asked for discussion to an idea. This is just like all the other guys and gals before me to tried the same. The only difference is that i stand by my comment and i do not abuse you guys back because i reply back to every argument of yours (No matter how stupid/illogical/abusive) with valid arguments. Now you guys do not know how to deal with that and the only way to respind is to answer back with strong arm tactics.
    But guys the answer is really simple. Answer back with logical arguments and if you do not have any more logical arguments please rethink about the arguments (Do brainstorming and come up with one argument). Do not spend your valuable time working out HOW TO DISCREDIT PLAINSPEAK AND GET HIM (I am a man for you sake) OUT OF THE FORUM. Instead think about a logical argument to my post and convince me. Hey i am here to be convinced, Not my brow beating Not by strong arm tactis and certainly Not by abuses but by Logic.

    (Logic in india is called Tarq. So bai log bhuddi or Tarq sa bate karo )



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  • Rohan99
    07-26 02:46 PM
    I like this thread a lot. It is so relaxing, especially after reading "EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations).. " this thread is so intense, and uses 100% of brain capacity


    You seem to be enjoying this thread. This should be lighten up - 2 :)





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  • amitjoey
    01-13 12:27 PM
    I wish- Logiclife would answer this thread. He has a way to explain things and put things in perspective. He is very direct and I like that.



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  • bfadlia
    02-16 02:57 PM
    I still fail to see how country caps on Employment Based immigration serve the purpose of diversity. Look, people from India/China with H1B visas and pending AOS applications are already here, right? They are here and will be here regardless of whether they get GCs now or after 10 years. Many of them bought houses, have families, American born kids. How making them wait for years is gonna serve the purpose of diversity? You think if an Indian guy will be using AC21/EAD for years, going to finger printing every year, going through secondary security check on airports, in time he is gonna evolve into something less Indian? It's gonna be the same people but with different documents in their pockets.

    For diversity purposes there is lottery, and the purpose of that lottery is exactly that - the diversity. Also, if the government wants diversity, they should have immigration program like Canada has. Where people are issued permanent residency BEFORE coming to the country and spending years working for that country.


    bestia, the people here keep saying "i don't see the reasoning in x, then x must be wrong and should change"
    u believe US intended diversity in DV lottery only and by mistake put it in DV, FB and EB.. you are entitled to your opinion, but good luck getting someone to take u seriosly with this argument
    again..i only mentioned race when people kept saying we (certainly their race) are better and brighter, outside correcting that context i would never have discussed it this way.
    peace.. have a soccer game now.. c u later





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  • sumitpendharkar
    06-27 03:38 PM
    I just spoke with a paralegal at Fragomen and she assured even if USCIS issues a bulletin mid-month and retrogresses the dates, they wont be effective until Aug 1. So one could file AOS until July 31. This seems to contradict earlier response to visves's question.



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  • GCVictim
    08-25 04:14 PM
    Dear Immigration Attorney,

    My wife went India with her existing AP (not shown at airport), She already applied AP renewal before she leaves country. Can she come back to US using her new (renewed) AP? i.e. If I mailed that renewed approved AP to India,will she come back (carry) with that renewed approved AP.


    If she comes with renewed AP, Will that effect anything with I-485 file?





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  • unitednations
    02-13 03:00 PM
    Whether overflow happens vertically or horzontaly is subject to interpretation and we cannot really say if EB3 ROW is getting any undue advantage.....
    That matter can be litigated.....


    You guys still think it is horizontal. This has been discussed so many times with reference to the law; the note in november 2005 visa bulletin; another lawyer who received statistics in chinees overall approvals for 2006 which were going to be close to 7% and you guys still believe this is a gray area.

    the november 2005 visa bulletin made it black and white. It is no gray any longer. AC21 didn't do anything to change to horizontal; only spillover is allowed in quarter not annual.

    Hard to understand why people think it is still gray.



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  • syzygy
    09-23 02:28 AM
    I have sent close to 10 emails putting subject

    "Proposal to alleviate current US economic crisis"

    I hope I am doing right..





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  • Lasantha
    02-15 01:41 PM
    You are welcome Dyana. Also if you search this forum, you might be able to find lots of threads on filing 485, doing medicals etc from last June/July/August. These topics were beaten to death on this forum last year when a whole bunch of us filed 485. Good luck!

    Thank U all for your quick answers&good advice.It feels good to know I have new friends who can help me with my questions.
    About the cheques u're right, that's how we have done it. Separate personnal cheques for each of us, easy to track online.
    Hopefully we are not out-of-status and my husband's employer is not on th black list.
    How couldn't I figure it out by myself what IV means????Shame,shame...



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  • chanduv23
    02-14 02:22 PM
    Please be advised, that IV will not endorse this. If people are gathering here and in places like , please form your own mailing group and proceed.

    Those who are on this thread, if you have not yet sent the letter to President for the Admin fix campaign, please send it, and help IV make the grassroots campaign successful.





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  • bazuka6
    09-25 09:52 AM
    Nixtor, this idea is worth trying. If people who are buyinh house can be exempted from the VB quota, this will free up extra visas and will help those people who will not buy a house.

    Yes... if you have house closing statement and have been here legally and paid taxes(last X years... you are exempt from VISA cap)

    Now that makes sense for a senator looking for a predictable way to solve mortgage crisis



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  • Roger Binny
    08-15 08:35 AM
    Try detaining any of their top Hollywood Heroes at an Indian airport for 2 hours and see how USA media and people will react to it.

    You people have no respect for your own motherland and always think everything American is good than your own country. Learn to stand up for your motherland. Just because you want your greencard does not mean you forget your roots. Anti-Immigrants (read racists) of this country will still call you slumdogs even if you are a citizen of this country. But your own country people will never forget you and will accept you as their own even if you have lived here for 50 years.

    Learn to love your motherland.

    Excellent reply.





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  • gc_chahiye
    06-26 12:49 PM
    I did not see any precedance for stopping I485 in the middle of months for past 10 years. If it happens that will be first time

    did'nt that just happen to EB3-Other_Workers? The July visa bulletin turned their dates into U, and at the same time USCIS was asked to stop accepting applications (although dates were ok per the June bulletin). That was the note on immigration-law.com (with another note that AILA was looking into the legality of doing this)

    ================================================== =====================================
    06/16/2007: Unskilled Worker EB Category Visa Exhausted Even in June 2007

    * This is a truly bizzare news. AILA has reported that State Department had advised the the USCIS that the EB-3 Other Worker category had been exhausted., and based on this advice, thedUSCIS HQ has informed the Texas Service Center and the Nebraska Service Center to reject EB-3 Other Worker I-485 applications even though the June Visa Bulletin shows visa availability. It is indeed a double blow news to the Unskilled Worker community. AILA is looking into legality of this action.





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  • surya.kant
    05-30 09:22 AM
    Mr. Oppenheim stated that, due to the dramatic increase in employment-based filings, visa cutoff dates for FY2010 will be much more limited to ensure that there will be a steady supply of visa numbers available throughout the year. This will lead to earlier cutoff dates and may help prevent visa categories from becoming unavailable.


    This is the key for VB in coming months. The cut-offs will move slowly and that would mean FIFO for approvals.

    Recapturing unused visa is the only way to reduce the gap between visa supply and demand.





    pmat
    05-11 01:35 PM
    What happens to the money contributed to US Social security if you move to Canada (for stays < 10 yrs in US). Can you transfer the social security to Canadian system?





    dealsnet
    09-04 12:26 PM
    If this is true, it is serious. If a donors information is compromised, it is like selling the credit card info the cheats. It is high time to clear bad elements from IV.


    Yup, it is a religious fanatic. Also it must be an insider.
    I am still wondering how the full name of "Jayapaul Reddy Vadicherla" is known.
    One thing is that the Vadicherla is a Donor and must have given all his details while donating. The insider have access to this information and posted it.

    _TrueFact, can you post my full name?



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