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  • sachug22
    09-15 02:17 PM
    Here are my Estimate of pending EB2 India case for give years

    <=2004 2000
    2005 10000
    2006 13000
    2007(july) 5000
    ==============
    Total 30000
    ==============

    This number is very close to Ron Gocthers number prediction a few months back (minus sept approvals).

    Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis - Page 6 - Immigration Information Discussion Forum (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/general-immigration-questions/8419-collaboration-on-visa-quota-data-analysis-6.html)

    Pending as of 15 July 2009 145000
    EB2 50000
    EB3 94000
    EB2India (2.4/3.5 EB2) 35714

    We can use the LCA number and come close these numbers as well

    2005
    EB2 India LCA for 2005 = RIR (3000) + PERM (60% of 7290) ~ 7400
    Assuming 20% abandon applicant we get = 5900
    1.2 dependent per applicant give ~ 13000 I-485 applicantions
    Assuming 10% approved in 2008 and 10% rejected/abandon I-485 and 5% cross-charageability we get => pending 10000 pending I-485 application for 2005

    2006
    India PERM applications = 18000
    EB2 India PERM applications (60%) = 10800
    Assuming 20% abandon applicant we get = 8640
    1.2 dependent per applicant give ~ 19000 I-485 applicantions
    Assuming 10% approved in 2008 and 10% rejected/abandon I-485 and 10% cross-charageability we get => pending 13000 pending I-485 application for 2006

    So if we see spillover of more than 30K the date will move beyond July 2007.





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  • gc28262
    01-16 06:48 PM
    Thanks for the post. Is there such a requirement when there is a renewal of H1B ?

    There is no such requirement for fresh H1B as well as renewal as per Law. That is why we call it an ILLEGAL memo. We all need to fight this together.

    NB: I am not a specialist in law





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  • at0474
    12-14 03:55 PM
    Good summary but let me also add the observation that eliminating the per country quota alone will not bring the desired benefit unless the following are also implemneted

    1) Increase of the total EB quota
    2) Exclude dependents from the quota
    3) Re-capture unused visas from past years.

    --Improve processing time to consume full quota allotted per fiscal year. If the cases are processed at snail pace, increasing quota to half a million visa doesn't mean squat to anybody. It will fall into another cycle of "waste visas & recapture visas"





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  • sachug22
    09-15 03:25 PM
    Hi ocpmachine,
    But in 2008 and 2009 EB2 India got the maximum share of the spill over visas. But still the dates are in the first month of 2005. So hardly EB2 India moved forward about 6 months to 9 months in the duration of 2008 and 2009 with the help of spill overs. That too in this bad economy where there would be comparatively less labors applied than the previous years.


    vdlrao,

    I agree the forward movement will be slow, and i am expecting it to go pass PD of 2005 in 2010 fiscal year. In 2009 CIS has many EB2-ROW application pending, and they have processed most of them by now(in 2009). So for 2010, unless they see flood of new applications (from EB2 ROW) we will see EB2-India pass 2005 PD in 2010.



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  • syendu1
    01-14 04:32 PM
    Mr Syendu after replying to all abusers my mind has pretty much been fogged up. Contrary to oipinion i am also working while blogging so there is the added pressure.

    So now having read through your post (I appreciate no abuses) i get the jist of what you are saying so forgive me if i do not reply line by line so here is my answer

    EB1/EB2/EB3 rule was never disputed by me. That is law and will never chaange. i dont like it but i will go with what is the law.

    Yes i will NOT convert to EB2 because i have already spent time and energy for the first GC app. (In case any abuser is wondering the gc was paid by company so it is not the lack of funds or lack of companies willing to file for EB2 for me which is stopping me). Sure people are converting and all the best to them, but my point is what about people who cannot convert. Maybe someone has got 2 kids and single earner and he does not have the time or money to do a masters. Maybe some one is so tired working a job which is busting his or her ass off and has no energy to do that. If we think about it there are a whole lot of reasons why a person cannot do a masters. And to that complexities there are very few companies which are willing to sponser EB2 nowadays

    So my plain speak is that just because every member in IV has a masters and is in EB2 or can do masters and convert from EB3 to EB2 does not mean that the majority of people out there can do the same so IV members giving advises like below ar enot only impracticle but also broder on hig handedness. Their contention is that we did it why can you not. If you cannot you must be a low skilled person who has scrapped through into the country and deserves to wait a long time for a visa.

    Please remember that EB2 or EB3 is not a straighjacket and theri are people in both the groups who do not belong there and belong in the other group


    Just for information i do have a masters

    Visa recapture and not counting the dependents will help the immigration community only if it happens. I see nothing on the horizon which says that it will happen. As another iV member pointed out no immigration friendly bill has come for debate in the last 4 years and that is with a democratic majority which is immigration friendly as some IV members like to point out. So with such a situation piece meal efforts must be made but piece meal efforst should be directed to the heavily retorgressed community because teh big bills if and hwne they happen will fololow teh regular rule anyway

    And finally i would like to say you have been most polite and respectfull and i am honoured to discuss thiongs with you

    JAI HIND

    well, the people who are in eb3 and cannot do anything about it, for reasons that you quoted, i agree, it is a pity. but, you know what, "life is not fair".

    it is a good thing u worry about others, and want to help them. however, when u look at those bills you mentioned and none getting passed. yes, it may look like a waste to do anything. however, we need to keep trying. with the limited resources we have, i think we should focus on "things/bills/issues" the IMPACT most people. doing something only for eb3 or eb2, in my opinion, would be even more difficult, given the progress legal immigration has made in this country. so, may be, u cud help in getting the things done that impact more people.

    and it is ur decision not to go eb2 (even, with the resources you mentioned). have to admit, thats strange. may be u r like me, who is not obsessed with a gc. however, we live in a society, in a system (however flawed it may be), and we all try to live by those rules, try to use opportunities that are available legally and make our lives, a little better.

    i came to this country in 1999, i have a MS, PHD from a reputed Comp Sci program. Many people who (still) dont know much about Computer Sci. came into the dept, got their MS and have been very successful, making tons of money. i am a guy whose bs, ms and phd is in Comp Sci. i think u will find may 2 or 3 guz out of may 10, who have a degree in CS, particularly in the undergrad. i used to be very mad at all the electrical, mechanical etc guz getting software jobs. i used to hate almost all software professionals coz i thought i had to work very had for my ranks, on my gpa and on my degrees and see there are people who are making as much as i do, with none of that. slowly, but surely, i have come to terms that "life is not fair" and then, what if fellow human beings can get good jobs, whats wrong with that?? is how i started to see it, (as long as they are good enough).

    what i am trying to say is please think in a global scale and help solve issues which can impact the MOST number of people and not just a minority. coz, the exceptions u stated, will be there for any issue.

    Jai Hind





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  • Desertfox
    02-13 01:30 PM
    But we also have members making $30K fundraising effort successful in 7 days! Hence I believe if the IV core decides to explore the possibility of a lawsuit, we can raise enough money to hire an attorney for that.

    Amit, noble thoughts. But that's not how majority of IV members think. We have members who think $50 contribution per month is too much. There is considerable opposition to making IV a paid forum (with even nominal fees of $10 or $20).

    Do you think we can get 500 members ready to contribute $500 here? Create a poll on this and see, you'll be lucky if you get 20! Like Jefferson said "those who prefer convenience over freedom and liberty, deserve neither". We are bound to suffer since we aren't ready to act.



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  • intheyan
    10-19 02:35 PM
    Hi,
    Thanks a lot for reading this Question. Thanks in advance for your valuable suggestion. My friend initially came on H1 visa. Her Husband is the primary applicant for Green Card and she was working on H1 visa without break. Now she is on EAD and joined a job in EAD got 2 months pay stubs( ie 8 weekly pay stubs). After that got 3 months break. Her status now is on I-485 and no more on H1. Note: Her husband was the primary applicant and she applied I-485 through her husband's GC.

    Her husband got the GC card and she is waiting for her's. While her husband received the GC she was working on her EAD.
    Now the question is Will the break in her work on EAD be a problem for getting her GC?.





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  • mirage
    03-28 08:42 AM
    Remove 'Bahenji' ? If LK Advani or Manmohan Singh don't get enough seats we may see Behanji at the Helm...She looks to win most number of seats in the 3rd front, which makes her the front runner for PM candidate in the 3rd front. If 3rd front gets a good number of seats they may get support of opportunist parties like BJD who are not telling who they stand with. remove Atalaji...add Bahenji.



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  • jchan
    05-29 03:18 PM
    Well, I think the discussion is about people playing by rules are getting pushed back by those exploiting loopholes.

    Some members were trying to say we should not fight fraud because the root cause is insufficient visa number (and country quota). While he was right about the root cause, that does not mean we can't do the two things at the same time.

    See what happened to H1B when USCIS acted seriously about fraud? Most of the fake 'employers' or those applying H1B only to rotate people in the US got the message and really thought twice before they file a case. Result: two months from 04/01, there are still 20k H1B quota left. And this didn't even need any legislative change.

    What if USCIS starts scrutinizing EB1 cases for multi national executives? In no time they will find 50% of employee from an Indian IT firm are executives. This is not hard -- by common sense a very very small portion of employee are executives.

    Someone said we would do the same if in their position. Well they didn't know some people do have a line of morality. I am from China. There are many ways to apply refugee being a Chinese -- one child policy, Fa Lun Gong, etc. Yet I refused to do that and most of my countrymen didn't.

    If you didn't have patience to read every word of my reply, what I wanted to say is, fighting fraud and advocating more visa numbers are not mutual exclusive. We do not have to unite those who get their Green Card by fraud, because our interest are not the same with theirs.


    Can not agree more.

    We get engaged in all kinds of discussions EB1 Vs EB2, EB-I Vs EB ROW. bulletin predictions...But we all skilled immigrants can not figure out how to unite and resolve the big issue of backlog. When one person suggests any initiative( flower campaign, call campaign, letter campaign etc.) more 20 people hammer him or her and spend their full energy in proving how suggested idea will not work. Next time the guy does not even think about suggesting anything. On top of that some will come up with their line" Have you contributed, If not then do that first".Our lack of unity will keep us here for a long time to come. In coming months and years, some people will lose interest, stop visiting this site and move on. Others will come to see if there is any POSITIVE news and some will still keep fighting over the issues of EB1 vs EB2 vs India vs China Vs ROW.

    Good Luck





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  • alisa
    06-27 10:00 PM
    Yes I agree.. But if they don't move date foward then they can't approve those backlog applications.And they don't want to loose 40,000 visas . Now when they made all date current, they can approve all those pending application which are complete and just waiting for date to become current. Now we don't know real number and don't know how long it will take USCIS to do all approvals. But if they approve 40,000 in 2 weeks, I won't be surprised if they make it 'U' like other workers.

    But then question still remains why they made all current. They could have just moved it by year or so.. And I am sure they know how many application they can expect in July.. I already saw some where that we have around more then 80,000 approved perm.. All they going to apply.. And what about all whose labor just got approved fro Backlog centers?

    Its making everybody confused.. But its not in our hand and we can't do anything. Best thing is to file asap and just hope for best and we are always ready for worst..


    Just think if they make date 'U' in middle of july, how many member going to loose money. Each of us spent so much money this month and if nothing happens that we loose all of it.
    Are you sure about 80000 PERM?

    I recall seeing somewhere that for the entire 2006, there were about 6000 PERMs.



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  • coopheal
    02-23 09:37 AM
    whatamidoinghere,
    what is the source of you information.
    Can we maintain a information on such numbers on IV itself so that we have one place to see it.





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  • belmontboy
    05-29 04:17 PM
    We all need to concentrate on being united. No point in pulling down others. This is typical behavior of Indian attitude. Do you think you will get your GC faster if EB1 abuse stops??? I would say no, we would be still stuck in the same shit hole for another 10 years. Why waste energy on this??? We should rather work on more constructive action items.

    Our main problem is 7% quota for India, China and other retrogressed countries is simply not enough. We need some relief in any possible way.

    Sometime back i did suggest an idea of working towards a separate Quota (not counted towards 140,000) for Masters/PhD students. That horse was beaten to death.

    Lets think more positive and list down all actions that we could work.

    To start with i suggest on having a separate quota (not counted towards 140,000) for Masters/PhD students. That should ease most of the pain.

    If anybody has other bright ideas, feel free

    Channel your outrage on a positive action item



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  • shana04
    10-15 03:11 PM
    I have built a very simple EB2-I Visa predition model

    Making following assumption

    15000 new EB2 ROW I-485 applications
    12000 new EB1 I-485 applications
    EB4/EB5 use 70% of allocated visa (30% spillover)


    EB2 Visa Bulletin prediction for FY 2010
    Bulletin Quarterly-spillover Annual Spillover
    Oct-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
    Nov-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
    Dec-09 31-Mar-2005 1-Feb-2005
    Jan-10 31-Mar-2005 15-Feb-2005
    Feb-10 31-Mar-2005 31-Mar-2005
    Mar-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
    Apr-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
    May-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
    Jun-10 15-Oct-2006 31-Mar-2005
    Jul-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Sep-2005
    Aug-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Apr-2007
    Sep-10 31-Mar-2007 30-May-2007

    Amen! I wish your predictions come true.





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  • alisa
    01-28 11:22 AM
    Is this the reason the PDs don't move forward?
    How many pre-approved labors are there?
    I mean, if they got hundreds of thousands of pre-approved labors, the PDs will not more for a long long time......

    Such companies sell pre-approved labor certificates for several thousand dollars (I have heard 20K) and use it as a means to lure employees. Their LCs have very early priority dates and H1Bs are tempted to apply for such jobs. By mentioning LCs in their ads, they are also calling H1Bs to apply rather than being an equal opportunity employer for all people (including US citizens). All this gives a bad name for H1Bs and the greencard process. Anti immigrants use it against us in their campaign.



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  • gc28262
    01-16 06:48 PM
    Thanks for the post. Is there such a requirement when there is a renewal of H1B ?

    There is no such requirement for fresh H1B as well as renewal as per Law. That is why we call it an ILLEGAL memo. We all need to fight this together.

    NB: I am not a specialist in law





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  • saketkapur
    07-04 12:29 PM
    Application for 1 person:

    1. Lawyers fees = $500...............paid by me....not sure if any paid by my company
    2. AP+EAD = $350(170+180).....paid by me
    3. I-485 = $395..........paid by company
    6. Fedex = $60...........paid by me
    7. Medical = $170(no shots needed except TB test)....paid by me


    So all i all I paid $1080 and my company paid atleast $395(and maybe some legal fees too)

    And belive me guys I am at the lower threshold since I did not need any shots and did not loose any work days........

    So minimum loss to the company and individual(1 pesron only)is atleast 1475 bucks. So before making any conclusions keep this as the lowest threshold.However since we might get the $395+$350 back so the net loss to the individual at minimum will be $730/person and maybe $500/person to the company so making it atleast $1230/for 1 person.

    Assuming that appx. 45000 people were planning to apply....I guess we are at minimum $55350000 loss......and this is a very modest estimate......as I mentioned at the lower threshold.



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  • mallu
    02-15 06:26 PM
    The reason we have greater supply of workforce in IT from one specific country is not because of skills or talents. Almost every IT workers from ROW and China came to the US as a foreign student after TOEFL, GMAT, GRE, internship and only then landed a job in IT. Whereas the preponderence of IT workers from India came here through L1/B1/H1 sponsorship through bodyshops. Attending school, preparing for generalized tests requires time, money and patience. This is one big factor why the supply curve is skewed.

    I think it was reported that students from India is the largest % of students in US universities.





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  • psaxena
    01-14 02:07 PM
    These rules has always been and so are they right now. Nothing is new in the memorandum. Some one publishes and one points and makes a comment and everyone else like a herd of sheep starts panicking...



    Long 19 page memo - but loud and clear for many scenarios -
    http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/2010/H1B%20Employer-Employee%20Memo010810.pdf

    USCIS posts Q & A:
    USCIS - Questions & Answers: USCIS Issues Guidance Memorandum on Establishing the "Employee-Employer Relationship" in H-1B Petitions (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=3d015869c9326210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=68439c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD)


    This memo is an eye opener especially for folks on consulting company assignments and those who are self-sponsored or who want to do their own business. Finding a new H1 sponsor would be extremely difficult as well (AC21 folks beware).

    Now getting a new H1 or a transfer or a renewal, may be subject to very stringent scrutiny.

    This memo has the potential to throw a lot of small boutique Consulting companies out of business and along with it many of their employees - whether they use H1 or not.

    Wish the best for all affected folks.
    Pray and hope the GC dream is realized faster for all.

    Best Wishes





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  • PlainSpeak
    01-13 12:44 PM
    I think you should start EB3India.org (not affiliated to IV) similar to EB3Chinese.org
    There is an old chinese saying

    Be careful what you wish for it just might come true





    tikka
    07-03 11:02 PM
    Immigration lawyers raised unusually irate protests yesterday after the State Department and the immigration service abruptly withdrew tens of thousands of job-based visas they had offered last month to foreign professionals hoping to become permanent residents in the United States.

    The outcry was provoked by a terse announcement on Monday in which the State Department said it would not grant any more visas for the 2007 fiscal year to foreigners applying to become permanent residents based on their job skills. That notice reversed one the department had issued on June 13 announcing a two-month window starting July 2 for aspiring, high-skilled immigrants from around the world to present applications for visas known as green cards.

    The State Department said the 60,000 visas it had expected to offer would no longer be available because of �sudden backlog reduction efforts� by Citizenship and Immigration Services, the federal agency that processes applications for the visas offered by the department.

    In a statement yesterday, the American Immigration Lawyers Association accused the two agencies of perpetrating a �hoax� and a �bait and switch� against hopeful legal immigrants who played by the book.

    �Here people followed the rules and did everything right, yet without warning or explanation the door was slammed in their faces,� said Kathleen Campbell Walker, the president of the association.

    To apply, immigrants must undergo medical examinations and assemble documents to prove their job skills and show that a United States employer has sponsored them. Foreigners must be in the United States when they present their applications, which are processed on a first-come, first-served basis.

    Because of backlogs for employment-based visas, foreigners have had to wait many years just to be allowed to file their applications.

    Thousands of medical and technology professionals, including many working here on temporary visas, scrambled for weeks to get their documents together, in some cases canceling travel plans, in order to file their applications on Monday, the first day of the window. The State Department and the immigration agency closed the window without accepting a single application.

    �I am concerned that such action may violate the law and could threaten the integrity of our immigration system,� Representative Zoe Lofgren, Democrat of California who is chairwoman of the House Judiciary subcommittee on immigration, wrote in letters yesterday to Michael Chertoff, the secretary of homeland security, and Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of state. Ms. Lofgren warned that the federal government could face costly litigation because of its change of course.

    The State Department said it would begin accepting applications on Oct. 1 for 2008 visas. On July 30, the immigration agency will raise its processing fees by an average of 66 percent.





    kshitijnt
    03-30 06:56 AM
    Agreed but consider the other options. Lalu? Mulayam?? Mayawati???

    I will have tears of joy in my eyes if BJP get the majority but I know it will never happen... :(

    Laloos performance as railway minister is amazing. He can make a good PM. Anyday better than Rahul baba.



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